Lessons learned : building the architecture for a legionella impact spectrum for Malta

Abstract

Our study was planned and launched with explicit motivation to identify the triggers that could launch a Legionella Disease outbreak in Malta, enjoying a boon with tourism. The triggers would be used to prepare a first-ever Legionella Impact Spectrum. Our research has generated early surprises, and we share them as Lessons Learned, but not easily. Our first Lesson Learned was that our work was stymied by missing data in the Maltese Annual Notifiable Infectious Disease Reports (2010-2024), a vital database, essential for surveillance and adequate preparedness. We have undertaken a search to fill the data gaps. We share our early analysis of Legionnaire cases and deaths in the Maltese Annual Reports for 2010-2024. Our surprise finding is a latent spike in Legionnaire cases for 2023-2024 --and gaps in deaths for the same years. Using data from the Maltese Annual Reports, we can project that the likelihood of someone dying (our Chance of Death) after contracting Legionnaire’s Disease in Malta falls in the range of 3.9% to 12.4%.